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OKC voters exclusively share opinions on MAPS 3 options

Tuesday, September 22, 2009
By Scott Cooper

When unveiling the projects that would comprise a new MAPS (Metropolitan Area Projects) proposal late last week, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett said getting this initiative passed would be a fight. According to an exclusive Oklahoma Gazette/News 9 poll of OKC voters, he may face just that.

A WORTHY CAUSE
SURVEY SAYS
FORGING SUPPORT

The public opinion poll, conducted by Shapard Research just prior to Cornett’s announcement, found a slight majority favors extending the 1-cent sales tax which has been used to fund several city projects; almost everyone surveyed knew little to nothing about the proposal; three of the proposed projects have marginal support; and support is waning with each successive extension.

This may not the best news for the mayor and supporters of MAPS 3, but the window to sway the public is wide open before the Dec. 8 election.

“Sixty days is plenty of time to run a campaign for something like this,” said Keith Gaddie, Shapard’s vice president of research.

It will require a heavy education campaign. More than 80 percent polled said they do not have sufficient project information to make a final decision of support or opposition for MAPS 3. The Greater Oklahoma City Chamber of Commerce has conducted two polls, but refuses to release the findings.

“I haven’t heard much except what has been in the news, but I haven’t heard it discussed with my friends,” said city voter Norma Harris.

The mayor and city leaders behind the proposal have reiterated overwhelming community support to extend the special sales tax for more projects. But the Gazette/News 9 poll finds a different take. Of the nearly 1,000 OKC residents surveyed, 52 percent agreed extending the tax is a good idea, 37 percent wanted to let the tax expire, and 11 percent were unsure.

While the gap between extend and expire is 14 points, having only a slight edge of more than half agreeing is a nervous starting point.

Solid support remains for valuing the original MAPS, which paid for various projects like the Bricktown Ballpark and the Ronald J. Norick Downtown Library, and MAPS for Kids, which built new schools and classrooms. But the last 1-cent sales tax project, which funded $120 million for improvements to the Ford Center and a new practice facility to bring in an NBA basketball team, takes a huge dip in support. While more than 75 percent thought the first and second MAPS were worth the money, only 57 percent said the same for the third.

“On the Ford Center, everybody is going to get to use that, so that’s a good thing,” said city voter J.T. Dills. “But the practice facility, they didn’t sell it enough as a community thing or make any indication it was going to get used by anybody else but the team.”

That may indicate waning support.

“There might be a fatigue factor,” Gaddie said. “Each time (city officials) have gone to the well, the value of the results has gotten weaker.”

Depending on which previous sales-tax election poll respondents voted in may also indicate the level of support. Those who have only voted in the NBA election had greater support for MAPS 3 than those who had voted in the previous two sales-tax extensions. 

The final proposal planned to be put forth to voters contains eight projects totaling $777 million, including $17 million in contingency funds. The tax would last seven years, beginning after the Ford Center tax expires in March.

The projects receiving the most support deal with city beautification and services, such as parks, trails and streets. MAPS 3 designates $10 million for more sidewalk construction and $40 million for 57 miles of bike and walking trails. Nearly 54 percent in the poll supported a sales tax extension for such projects. Oudoor projects were the only ones receiving more than 50 percent support.

The MAPS 3 plan to build up to six miles of rail for a streetcar in the downtown area earned 50 percent support in the poll. But with nearly 34 percent opposing such a project and 17 percent unsure, streetcar proponents will have to pound the pavement to secure passage.

Outdoor projects and a new streetcar were the only MAPS 3 projects receiving majority support in the poll.

“Those things are considered a public good. It’s for everybody to use and enjoy,” said Gaddie.

Aside from a proposal to spend $50 million on senior aquatic centers, city leaders will have to do some serious selling to get voter approval for the rest of the MAPS 3 projects.

A plan for a downtown central park gained 36 percent support, while 45 percent opposed. With a price tag of $130 million, the 70-acre park is one of the highlighted projects, but its lack of support may come from its location.

“A lot of the city isn’t touched by this. That’s why the support is more broad-based for general outdoor improvements,” Gaddie said. “If they are going to pay taxes, they want it to go to services that will come out to them.”

One poll question asked potential voters to pick the most attractive of four options, which included further Oklahoma River development, a Bricktown canal extension to the Myriad Gardens, added State Fairgrounds pavilion space or none of the above. Here are the results:

• Improvements to the Oklahoma River, which would cost $60 million, received 26 percent.
• 25 percent picked the canal extension.
• 11 percent selected fairgrounds upgrades, estimated at $60 million.
• 39 percent preferred no options.

But the one MAPS 3 item which could be the Achilles’ heel for the initiative is the most costly: a new convention center priced at $280 million. The main push of the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber of Commerce, and the centerpiece of the mayor’s roundtable forum back in May, was only supported by 27 percent in the Gazette/News 9 poll. Opposition to the convention center hovered above 57 percent.

“That convention center project by itself is unpopular,” Gaddie said. “It’s the one that engenders the greatest opposition across all ideological groups.”

Regardless of age, gender, political party, race or income, the majority of all demographic groups voiced a resounding “no” on the convention center.

“I don’t think it needs to be redone, especially at this time,” said city voter Beverly Adkins, who is concerned about such an initiative during the current economic condition. 

For Mayor Cornett and his MAPS 3 organizers, the search is on for the pockets of support and pitfalls of opposition. The first place they might want to start is in Councilman Larry McAtee’s Ward 3 district. The Southwest Oklahoma City ward has the highest and most consistent levels of resistance to the proposal.

On the basic question of extending the sales tax or not, only 31 percent in Ward 3 said yes, 15 points below the next district of support. The ward also rejected every one of the proposed MAPS 3 projects, especially the convention center, which only 8 percent approved.

Contrasting the views of Ward 3, the councilman swore his support in a written statement to the mayor.

“For the good of my children and grandchildren, now is the time to keep moving forward. I wholeheartedly support the MAPS 3 initiative,” McAfee said.

MAPS 3 proponents will also have to work on the poor and middle classes of the city, which provide less support than higher-income patrons. The high mark comes from those making more than $100,000 a year, with 68 percent approval, while 53 percent of $50,000 and lower annual incomes show support. Of those earning less than $25,000, the level of support dropped to 40 percent.

“The poor and middle class are always more hurt by an increase in the sales tax and they always want to cut it,” Gaddie said. “The affluent are less affected by it and, therefore, are more supportive. Whether it’s 6 or 7 percent (sales tax) isn’t that big a difference.”

One other demographic to consider if the election is close is African-Americans, of which 54 percent support extending the tax.

“The African-American vote when properly mobilized can be turned out in high numbers and can be turned out as a block vote,” Gaddie said. “In Oklahoma City, we have seen instances where high African-American turnout in low-turnout elections has led to surprises. Ask Kirk Humphreys.”

Back in February, former mayor Humphreys was upset in his bid to be Oklahoma City school board chairman by Angela Monson, based largely on a significant African-American turnout in just a few precincts.

The city plans to lump all of the projects into one proposal for voters to consider. Gaddie called this strategy logrolling.

“The idea is if you roll everything up, the attractive elements will be so powerful that people will accept the things they don’t like to get the things they really want. This is like bundling your cable packages. Who really wants a shopping network? But you take it because you want HBO.” —Scott Cooper

Copyright 2009 Gazette Media, Inc. and KWTV.  All rights reserved.  This public opinion poll has been conducted by and is the property of News9 and the Oklahoma Gazette.  The republication of any of its contents and results must be accompanied by an acknowledgement of Oklahoma Gazette and News9 as its source and that it is copyrighted.

MORE: The comprehensive poll.
Will OKC's decreased revenue change MAPS 3's final blueprint?
Former Mayor Ron Norick discusses how current MAPS proposal differs from first
Mayor prioritizes modern streetcar in OKC for MAPS 3
Some OKC entities stand to benefit in MAPS 3 proposal
MAPS 3 could bring massive central park to Downtown OKC area

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