The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association issued Oct. 11, showed the entire state is in a severe drought, or worse. Fifty-nine percent of Oklahoma is in an exceptional drought, the worst category. Three months ago, about 43 percent of the state had the exceptional drought label.
Current long-range predictions have the drought continuing and intensifying, with a similar weather pattern predicted for the fall and winter months.
Gary McManus, associate climatologist with the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, said the states current weather pattern of now back-to-back La Niñas reminds him of the states last exceptionally bad drought in the 1950s.
right, Lake Hefner, just before summer hit
For most of the state, things are worse to catastrophic, he said.
Dust Bowl déjà vu?
How bad is the drought? The Oklahoma County Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension Service is offering a field day this week to help agricultural producers stay in business, the devastating dry spell is characterized as the states worst since the Dust Bowl by Ray Ridlen, a local horticulture and agriculture educator, and state Rep. Steve Kouplen, D-Beggs, recently urged Gov. Mary Fallin to temporarily lift regulations to help farmers and ranchers.
This summers drought and heat wave repeatedly have invited comparisons to the disastrous Dust Bowl of the late 1920s and 30s that sent black dust clouds sweeping the Plains.
Whenever a drought begins to occur, it often brings up painful memories and images of Okies fleeing to California, since long-term periods of drought are part of Oklahomas story. Wheres Woody Guthrie when you need him?
Extended, devastating droughts that lasted for several consecutive years occurred in the 1910s, 30s, 50s and 60s, sometimes broken up by a wetter year.
McManus said there is no indication that the area is heading into one of the more devastating long-term droughts.
The state has enjoyed above average rainfall years since the late 1970s, with a mild dip in the mid 2000s.
Download a PDF chart tracking the state's precipitation tendencies since 1900.
We have had a generation that has grown up with wetter than normal conditions, McManus said.
The brutal, historically hot summer set records across the state for 100-plus degree days. Foundations cracked. Lakes shrank. Trees died. More than 20 people died statewide. The drought continued to expand and worsen. Mercifully, September came, and temperatures broke.
Now the concern is that the state may set new records for low moisture.
Statewide,
rainfall totals from Jan. 1 through Oct. 12 average 17.59 inches
about 12 inches below normal according to the Oklahoma Mesonet. Its
still the second driest year since 1921.
La Niña returns
Blame this years rain deficit on the La Niña phenomenon. And probably next years, too.
In early September, the weather services Climate Prediction Center announced that El Niños counterpart had returned.
That
news is especially dire for farmers and ranchers in Oklahoma, who lost
between $1.6 and $2 billion as a result of the drought.
Another year like this would be very bad news, McManus said.
La Niña, which means little girl, causes cooler than normal water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
It shifts the jet stream further to the north, McManus said.
right, A dead fish at Lake Hefner.
During
a La Niña, the easterly trade winds strengthen and cold upwelling along
the equator and the west coast of South America intensifies. La Niña
winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier
of the United States, according to the NOAA website.
Its not that storm systems cant still come through; they do.
They
just dont happen often enough, McManus said. Weve seen these events
in the past. Theyre great, but they dont come in succession. The key
is to get something that follows up and reinforces it.
This year, much of the sparse rain that fell disappeared before it could even become runoff.You have a big, dry sponge, and it
has to fill up the little ponds first. (Rain) falls on the dirt and goes
(away), said Ken Komiske, Norman utilities director, who manages that
citys water supply, quality and distribution.
McManus
said forecasting is tough because there is no anticipating how many
storm systems make it to drought-stricken Oklahoma and Texas.
Its
more likely that it will be warm and dry, but its not set in stone.
You look at these large scientific phenomena to help you out, he said.
Water supplies still sufficient
Lake
Hefner dropped to its lowest level on Oct. 8. Sailboats are stuck in
the cracked, muddy bottom where they are moored and fish are dying in
the receding water pools.
However, the city is not in bad shape, as far as drinking water is concerned.
Besides
Lake Hefner, Oklahoma Citys primary drinking water sources include
Lake Atoka and McGee Creek in southeastern Oklahoma and Canton Lake in
northwest Oklahoma.
Lake
Thunderbird provides about 70 percent of Normans drinking water, as
well as water to Del City and Midwest City. It was at 1,034 feet or 74
percent of the conservation pool on Oct. 13.
When Lake Thunderbird reaches 1,029 feet, the Central Oklahoma Master
Conservancy District, which manages the lake, can require mandatory
water restrictions and limit pumping to its cities as necessary, said
Randy Worden, district manager.
We have asked our cities for voluntary reductions, and they have followed through, Worden said.
The
balance of Normans water comes from wells pulling from the
Garber-Wellington Aquifer and water purchased from Oklahoma City in peak
months.
Edmonds water comes from Arcadia Lake, the Garber- Wellington Aquifer and water purchased from Oklahoma City.
Arcadia Lakes conservation pool was at 95 percent as of Oct. 13.
Conservation still urged
Norman
rescinded mandatory water rationing in mid-September. Edmonds water
rationing plan expired Oct. 1. Oklahoma City lifted its water rationing
in mid- August, but officials encourage wise water usage.
McManus said most people still dont realize the importance of conserving water.
How bad it is is in the eye of the beholder, McManus said.
And
because residents are only just realizing the importance of its limited
supply of clean, clear water, how society would deal with an extended
drought is a concern.
Some
homeowners are implementing water-saving measures like landscaping with
drought-tolerant species and adding rain barrels to collect runoff to
supplement irrigation needs.
Komiske said water rationing isnt a bad thing; in fact, it can be beneficial.
Its
better for your lawn. Its better for your wallet, he said, about
watering every other day. Watering a lawn longer and on fewer days makes
grass roots go deeper and makes a lawn hardier and healthier.
And as far as emerging from the states deepening drought, keep your eyes to the skies.
Its not over yet, McManus said.