My first real encounter with Mike Mazzei was when a friend sent me a white paper he had authored in late 2022 about economic incentives being offered in the Filmed in Oklahoma Rebate Program and how they ultimately benefited the Oklahoma economy. It was flawed and misleading, claiming the state’s $30 million annual rebate to film generated an ROI of 6.37X our investment, multiplying $30 million into $191,115,275.
Simply stated, it was very misleading by conflating $191,115,275 of potential economic output with ROI. While $191 million in economic output is impressive, the reality is that Oklahoma was losing about 75% of the funds being deployed through film rebates. If we were getting a return on investment of 6.37X annually on this program, our state should invest all we can in film rebates, or perhaps start a private equity fund for Kevin Stitt’s Invest in Oklahoma Act. The report relied on a subjective multiplier from mature production states, which also inflated the outcome. It also did not evaluate alternative uses of the taxpayer dollars in the analysis or provide any sensitivity analysis normally included in these types of reports.
Mazzei’s report was recommending that lawmakers increase the rebate program from $30 million to $100 million annually, and implied the taxpayers would get $637 million in return. Instead, we would have likely lost $75 million, which is what a subsequent review of the same program by the Oklahoma Economic Incentive Commission found.
That’s how Mazzei Math often works: It starts with the answer it wants to achieve and works backward to fit a desired outcome, taxpayers and investors be damned. While Mazzei’s report started with legitimate data about film production and wages, hotel rooms, catered food and equipment rentals, it then it took the data and made a wild turn to get to the desired result, by using a misleading analysis in order to influence lawmakers.
Luckily, they did not listen, which likely saved Oklahoma taxpayers $210 million in wasted tax dollars over the last four years.
Sometimes Mazzei Math uses numbers in a misleading way to persuade voters, such as his campaign trail claim that he saved taxpayers from $11 billion in unfunded pension liabilities through pension reforms he co-authored with Randy McDaniel … failing to mention that the pension system and taxpayers were still on the hook for the unfunded liability. This equates to saying he eliminated $11 billion of debt, even though the debt still must be paid.
Who said math wasn’t fun? In Mazzei’s case, math is a chance to be creative and use his imagination. Such is the case when it doesn’t get fact-checked or need to add up.
Fast forward to today, and Mazzei Math seems to now change to fit a political script. Back in March, Mazzei stated a proposed smelter in Inola was a “Billion Dollar Boondoggle,” and that our $250 million incentive package was better used elsewhere, because it would only create 1,000 jobs. (Source: OKPoliticsToday.com) A few months later, he reversed his stance on the smelter in a widely publicized flip-flop orchestrated by convicted felon Roger Stone.
Not to let the facts get in the way of a good endorsement, Mazzei Math now claims the smelter will create 10,000 jobs and become 10% of Oklahoma’s economy. (Source: News9.com) That’s an even bigger flip-flop than what he did to get Donald Trump’s approval, and it’s absurd. Oklahoma’s gross state product (our economy) is almost $300 billion per year. To say the smelter will generate $30 billion per year for Oklahoma is Mazzei Math on steroids.
Perhaps Mazzei’s greatest “math trick” is saying he will eliminate our state income tax and property taxes for seniors and veterans, with the first installment of this plan taking $3 billion from our state’s core services, public schools, career tech and infrastructure. Mazzei Math gets pretty fuzzy when explaining how this gets paid for; offering no specifics, just a bunch of vague generalities and refusing to acknowledge his promised tax cuts are dead on arrival at the Oklahoma Senate chambers.
Mike Mazzei is trying to buy Oklahomans’ votes with math that never adds up. The correct answer to this problem is a vote for Gentner Drummond on Aug. 25.
This article appears in Best of OKC Winners.